Kyiv Business Intel

S&P Global Ratings upgraded Ukraine's long-term foreign-currency sovereign credit rating to CCC+ from CCC on 10 April 2026. The agency maintained the outlook at stable. The upgrade reflects S&P's assessment that near-term default risk has diminished as a result of continued IMF program disbursements, World Bank budget support, and the restructuring of Ukraine's Eurobond obligations completed in September 2024. S&P cited three primary factors driving the upgrade. First, Ukraine's general government deficit financing has been secured through 2026 by committed multilateral disbursements totaling approximately $37 billion, according to the IMF's monitoring framework. Second, the National Bank of Ukraine's foreign exchange reserves have stabilized above $40 billion, a level S&P regards as adequate for near-term external obligation coverage. Third, Ukraine's September 2024 commercial debt restructuring eliminated approximately $11.4 billion in principal obligations through maturity extension and partial write-down, materially reducing refinancing risk. ## CCC+ in context A CCC+ rating indicates that Ukraine remains highly vulnerable to non-payment under adverse conditions. S&P distinguishes CCC+ from the prior CCC rating on the basis that identifiable downside scenarios are now fewer in number and less likely to materialize within a 12-month horizon. The rating remains in speculative-grade territory, consistent with active conflict-zone sovereign issuers. Moody's rates Ukraine at Caa2 with a positive outlook. Fitch rates Ukraine at CC with a stable outlook. The S&P upgrade widens the gap between S&P's and Fitch's assessments to a degree unusual among the three major agencies covering Ukraine. ## Market response Ukraine's GDP-linked warrants, which trade on the London Stock Exchange, rose 3.2% on the day of the upgrade announcement. The warrants, issued as part of the 2024 restructuring, pay returns linked to Ukrainian GDP growth above a 3% threshold. ICU Group, Kyiv's leading investment bank, noted in a research note that the upgrade removes one formal barrier for a subset of institutional investors whose mandates exclude sub-CCC sovereign exposure.