Chisinau Business Intel

Moldova's government approved its 2026 state budget at the January Council of Ministers session. The budget allocates record capital investment spending, with the infrastructure envelope increased compared to 2025 actual expenditure. Finance Minister Adrian Popoviciu confirmed the budget meets all conditions under Moldova's IMF Extended Credit Facility arrangement, which does not permit the deficit to exceed 4.5% of GDP. Total public investment spending in the approved budget is MDL 14.7 billion (approximately $830 million at current exchange rates), a 22% increase from the 2025 approved budget. The increase reflects capital allocations required under Moldova's EU accession investment framework, which links EU Growth Plan disbursements to demonstrated public investment capacity. ## EU accession link Moldova's EU Growth Plan, agreed in 2024, provides up to €1.8 billion in grants and loans conditional on reform implementation. Capital investment targets form part of the conditions for Growth Plan disbursements. The EU's sixth disbursement of €38 million was released in the first quarter of 2026 following verification that Moldova met two additional reform milestones. The State Department's 2025 Investment Climate Statement on Moldova, published in 2026, assessed the investment environment as improving. The report cited banking sector consolidation following the 2018–2020 reform cycle, anti-corruption court establishment, and EU accession momentum as factors reducing investment risk. The statement noted that rule-of-law concerns and judicial independence remain investor concerns. ## EBRD economic forecast The EBRD's February 2026 Regional Economic Prospects report projects Moldova's GDP growth at 4.1% for 2026, up from 3.2% recorded in 2025. The EBRD attributes the acceleration to increased public investment, recovering consumer demand, and growing IT sector output. The report identifies energy cost uncertainty and geopolitical spillover as downside risks.