Chisinau Business Intel

The National Bank of Moldova held its key policy rate at 3.60% at its March 2026 monetary policy meeting. The decision was unanimous among the BNM's Executive Board members. It marks the third consecutive meeting at which the rate has been held following a cutting cycle that reduced the rate from 6.0% in January 2024 to 3.60% by October 2024. The BNM's statement cited annual inflation of 5.1% in February 2026 — within its 5% ± 1.5 percentage point target — as the primary factor supporting the hold. Governor Anca Dragu said at the post-meeting press conference that a further rate cut is possible in the second half of 2026 if inflation continues to decline toward the target midpoint. ## Energy price risk The BNM's statement identified energy price uncertainty as the primary downside risk to the inflation outlook. Moldova has significantly reduced its dependence on Russian natural gas since 2022 but remains exposed to natural gas price volatility through its remaining import needs. The bank noted that electricity import costs from Romania and other EU members are a more manageable risk than direct Russian supply disruption.